Bitcoin at $77,000, Ethereum at $2,100: why won't the price move?
Bitcoin has been stuck around 77,000 dollars for a fifth straight week, while Ethereum has hovered at 2,100 dollars, contradicting every cyclical analyst forecast.
Should you be worried that Bitcoin has barely moved above $77,000 for almost a month, or is this precisely the signal of stability the market has been waiting for? If you are trading short-term, yes, you should worry. If you are looking long-term, not so much. The price opened Monday at $76,969 and rose mildly to $77,292, a pattern repeating now for a fifth straight week.
Ethereum is moving around $2,100, with a Monday open at $2,097 and a move toward $2,112. That is far from the projections at the start of the year, when analysts expected a jump above $4,000 per ETH. Something is happening here that breaks the expected post-halving pattern from April 2024.
The halving pattern that didn’t repeat
The halving is a Bitcoin event that occurs every four years, cutting miner rewards in half. Historically, every halving has been followed by a major price rise over the next 12 to 18 months. The 2024 halving should, by that pattern, have produced a price above $150,000 by May 2026. The number on the screen says otherwise.
The reason is not one thing. There is a larger institutional buyer base stabilising the price, fewer speculative retail buyers, and a tough macro environment (high interest rates, a strong dollar) that makes risk assets less attractive.
What happened with the expected cyclical rally
The Trump administration announced in January 2026 executive orders meant to drive institutional Bitcoin adoption, including a federal strategic Bitcoin reserve. The market reaction was a brief week-long euphoria, after which the price drifted back to pre-announcement levels.
Practically, the news that was supposed to be the big catalyst did not move the needle. That changed market psychology and investors stopped reacting to similar announcements.
What it means for a long-term holder
If you bought Bitcoin during the previous rally (late 2024) at around $60,000, you are currently up roughly 28 percent. A nice number, but well below what has historically been a normal gain post-halving. If you are planning to sell, weigh whether it is worth paying capital-gains tax now (rates vary by country) or holding longer.
If you are thinking about your first purchase, the current level is historically high but not at the top. The previous top was $109,000 in January 2025. Bitcoin is currently 30 percent below that, which gives a buyer some cushion compared to buying at the top.
The Ethereum story is different
Ethereum has not followed Bitcoin in the same pattern. A price of $2,100 is far from the November 2021 peak of $4,890. That is 57 percent below the all-time high, which for most investors who entered during the previous cycle represents a significant realised or unrealised loss.
The reason for ETH’s weakness is a combination of competition (Solana, Sui and other newer blockchains are taking part of the utility base), the absence of a spot ETF in the US (rejected at the end of 2025), and technical problems with Layer 2 solutions that were supposed to lower transaction costs but did not bring the user volume forecast.
What the buyer should know
Buying and selling cryptocurrency is legal in most European jurisdictions through licensed platforms that have received local authorisation. The regulatory framework varies country by country, but the general direction is converging under the EU’s MiCA regulation, fully phased in by mid-2026.
The next major Bitcoin date is August 2026, when the US SEC is expected to rule on several alternative ETF products. A positive decision could trigger fresh volatility. Until then, the price will probably stay in the $70,000 to $85,000 range, which for most users means quiet weeks without dramatic moves.
