NIS Countdown: Seven Days to July 1, Sale Deal Still Unsigned
The OFAC license keeping NIS operational expires on July 1, while the purchase agreement between Gazprom Neft and MOL remains unsigned. Without it and US approval, no sale, and Pancevo waits.
- The special OFAC license keeping NIS operational runs until July 1, 2026; the previous one expired on June 16.
- The purchase agreement for the 56.15 percent stake between Gazprom Neft and MOL is still being finalized and is not signed.
- Serbia signed a shareholders' agreement with MOL on June 16, but it takes effect only with a Gazprom Neft deal and US approval.
- NIS says it holds reserves of about 350,000 tons of crude oil secured through the deadline.
The special license from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) that keeps NIS operational expires on July 1, 2026, leaving seven days to close a deal on which Serbia’s oil processing depends. The previous permit lapsed on June 16, and the new one was secured for a window now measured in days. Without a signed purchase agreement and Washington’s approval, the ownership transaction cannot be executed.
NIS shares have not traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange since January 14 due to a temporary suspension, so there is no market signal on the outcome. The weight of the whole arrangement therefore rests on two documents that do not yet exist in final form: the purchase agreement between Gazprom Neft and Hungary’s MOL, and OFAC confirmation that the stake transfer is permitted.
What has been signed, and what still stands?
Serbia and MOL signed a shareholders’ agreement on the management of NIS on June 16. That document, however, takes effect only if MOL and Gazprom Neft agree on the stake purchase and OFAC approves it. The stake in question is the 56.15 percent held by the Russian side, and it is precisely this ownership transfer that remains open as the deadline approaches.
Under the same arrangement with MOL, Serbia is buying an additional 5 percent of NIS, and the refinery would operate for at least the next 10 years at its pre-sanctions capacity. For the state, that is a key guarantee: Pancevo is the processing hub and the backbone of supply to the domestic market, where NIS dominates with the largest retail network and an estimated share of about 80 percent of supply.
Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said on June 17 that NIS holds record reserves, about 350,000 tons of crude oil secured through July 1, in storage and at the port of Omisalj. That figure is a buffer that buys time, but it does not change the ownership equation itself. The reserves cover processing, not the license under which processing takes place at all.
What happens if the deadline passes with no deal?
Analysts warn that if there is no resolution by July 1, the first effect is a halt to processing in Pancevo. That would pull an additional hit to gross domestic product and pressure on fuel retail, including the risk of NIS and Lukoil stations leaving the network, which by some estimates touches about 30 percent of stations on the market. The scenario is not new: the end of 2025 already brought a refinery shutdown over sanctions, and the experience from that period is the yardstick for what may follow.
The difference now is that a framework solution exists, MOL as the buyer and a shareholders’ agreement with Serbia, but the signature that would activate it is missing. Seven days is a short window to finalize a purchase of this scale and to secure parallel OFAC consent, which is issued on its own timeline. The next development that changes the picture will be either a signed Gazprom Neft-MOL agreement before July 1, or a new OFAC license that pushes the deadline further out.
Is it realistic for the purchase agreement and US approval to come together in the remaining seven days, or does another last-minute license extension await?
