Serbia's Fuel Reserves Cover 90 Days, Coal Falls Short

Serbia’s fuel reserves cover more than 90 days of average summer consumption, according to figures presented on August 2 by Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic during an appearance on RTS. Alongside the fuel stockpile numbers, the ministry released coal stockpile levels at thermal power plants for the first time, giving the first real picture of how much room the system has before winter.

Storage levels, according to the minister:

• diesel: 565,000 tons, more than 90 days of average summer consumption
• gasoline: 128,000 tons, close to 90 days
• jet fuel: over 40,000 tons, roughly two months
• coal at thermal power plant stockyards: 1,820,000 tons

Coal Stockpiles Still 180,000 Tons Short of Target

The goal is to push coal reserves above 2 million tons before the start of the winter season. The gap between that target and the current 1,820,000 tons stands at 180,000 tons, about 9 percent of the planned volume. According to the minister, the stockyards are filling every day, and coal production in July came in above plan at both Kolubara and Kostolac.

Quality is a separate problem. At TENT, cooling water drawn from the Sava River is not threatening output, but the lower calorific value of the coal is cutting into electricity production, and the shortfall is being covered by importing higher calorific value coal. At Kostolac the constraint is different: cooling requires a certain water level on the Danube, and output at some units has been cut by a third in the recent period.

Why Is Djerdap Running at a Fifth of Capacity?

Danube inflow has dropped to 1,500 cubic meters per second.

“The inflows are at their lowest point, 1,500 cubic meters per second,” Djedovic Handanovic said.

Inflows were last at that level in 2003, and before that in 1985. Djerdap 1 is therefore running at 20 percent of capacity, Djerdap 2 at 30 percent, and May, June and July combined produced the weakest output since the hydroelectric plant went online. The decline at Djerdap was reported earlier, at a time when no figures on fuel or coal reserves had yet been released.

Reservoirs are being held at 75 percent, deliberately kept there as a reserve for unforeseen situations. Inflows on the Drina are below average but above the biological minimum. The rehabilitation of the Bajina Basta reversible hydroelectric plant, completed in the spring, allows water to be pumped when electricity is cheap and generated during the morning and evening consumption peaks.

How Much More Power Will Winter Require Than This Heat Wave?

Between five and fifteen gigawatt hours a day. The heat wave pushed consumption to 100 to 105 gigawatt hours, while the winter peak reaches 110 to 115 gigawatt hours. A system currently running with Djerdap at a fifth of its capacity will need to cover that same gap in December, with no guarantee that Danube inflow will have recovered by then.

“I am calling on citizens to use electricity rationally,” the minister said.

The Region Is Competing for the Same Resources

Low Danube levels have also cut cooling capacity at nuclear power plants across the region. Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant is running at 50 percent capacity, and in Romania one reactor is offline while the other is running at reduced power. The minister said Bulgaria will likely have to shut down at least two units if the situation continues, a statement about a possible future step, not a measure already taken.

When several neighboring markets are competing for electricity and coal at the same time, prices rise for everyone, including buyers in Serbia.

“All of this creates pressure, above all on the available quantity of electricity, and then on electricity prices,” Djedovic Handanovic explained.

State Fuel Reserves More Than Double

Mandatory state reserves of oil and oil derivatives have been raised from 27 to 28 days of average consumption, the level they stood at when Djedovic Handanovic took over the ministry, to 58 days. That growth of more than 100 percent explains why the drop in imports this summer has not spilled over to the pumps. Last week, because of reduced imports, part of the derivative stock was released from companies’ operational reserves so that the state’s strategic reserves would remain untouched. Work on new state owned storage facilities is continuing.

The Danube itself is complicating imports: barges are not moving at their usual pace, so around 14,000 tons of derivatives are being brought in by rail instead. The system leans on the refinery in Pancevo. A one month extension of NIS’s license allows for the purchase of an additional tanker and the delivery of at least 140,000 tons of crude oil during August, with processing running at around 11,000 tons a day, or 330,000 tons a month.

External pressure on prices has not eased. Oil is trading at around 90 dollars a barrel, Russia has banned exports of oil derivatives, and Turkey has bought 1 million tons of diesel on the Mediterranean market. Last year a similar squeeze was weathered thanks to reserves, during a stretch of nearly one hundred days without any crude oil deliveries, while supply remained stable throughout.

The next concrete date on the calendar is the arrival of a new excavator at the coal mines, expected next week. Before the start of the winter season, the stockyards still need to take in another 180,000 tons of coal, while consumption in the meantime keeps climbing.