NBS foreign reserves fall 946.2 million euros in September
The state settled 400.2 million euros in obligations, the central bank was a net seller of 380 million euros to energy importers, and gold lost value.
Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves fell in September from a record 30.8 billion euros at the end of August to 29,859.2 million euros, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) announced on October 12. The statement reads: “Gross foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Serbia at the end of September 2026 amounted to 29,859.2 million euros.” The difference from August is 946.2 million euros.
Net foreign exchange reserves, meaning gross reserves minus banks’ foreign currency holdings held as required reserves and minus obligations to the International Monetary Fund, stood at about 25.5 billion euros. That is 769.8 million euros less than at the end of August. The gross amount covers the M1 money supply at 152.4%, or 6.7 months of imports of goods and services, which the NBS says is more than twice the standard for an adequate level of import coverage.
Where did the 946.2 million euros go?
In its statement, the NBS breaks the change down into four items:
- settlement of the state’s foreign currency obligations: an outflow of 400.2 million euros
- NBS interventions on the foreign exchange market: an outflow of 230 million euros
- negative market effects: 381.5 million euros
- reserve management, donations and other items: a net inflow of 65.5 million euros
Together they add up to the 946.2 million euro decline. The 230 million euros is lower than the September net sale of 380 million euros for two reasons. A purchase of 90 million euros agreed at the end of August was only settled in September and came in as an inflow. A sale of 60 million euros concluded at the end of September settles in October, so its outflow will hit the reserves next month.
Why was the NBS selling foreign currency?
According to the statement, the sales in the second half of September were driven mostly by stronger demand for foreign currency to import energy, above all oil, at high prices because of tensions in the Middle East. On the interbank market the NBS was a net seller of 380 million euros, as domestic companies importing energy needed more currency.
Net sales since the start of the year total 475 million euros, which the NBS describes as a measure to maintain the relative stability of the dinar against the euro. Those figures imply that about 95 million euros had been sold by the end of August, so roughly four fifths of this year’s net sales fell in September. The dinar weakened 0.1% against the euro in nominal terms in September and 0.2% over the first nine months. Trading volume on the interbank foreign exchange market came to 432.4 million euros in September and 6.9 billion euros since January.
Energy also showed up in the inflation data the NBS published the same day. Monthly inflation was 0.2%, while prices of oil derivatives rose 2.3% on the month and 17.3% year-on-year.
What happened to gold?
Gold makes up 21.9% of gross reserves. At the end of September the NBS held a record 55,142.3 kilograms, worth 6.53 billion euros. During September it bought 12 gold bars, 150.5 kilograms in total, on the domestic market from Serbia Zijin Copper. Since the start of the year it has bought 2.6 tonnes of gold.
Even so, the value of the gold reserves dropped by 427.7 million euros in September. The price of gold in dollars fell 8.5%, and the decline was partly cushioned by a 2.3% strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Over the year, market effects are close to neutral: the dollar price of gold is 3.1% lower, while the dollar has gained 3.6%. Since January the value of the gold reserves is up 335.7 million euros thanks to the purchases of bars.
