Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon falls 36 percent, the lowest figure since 2014
Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reports that between August 2025 and March 2026 some 1,460 square kilometres of forest were cleared, around a third less than in the same period a year earlier.
Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, INPE), which tracks forest loss using satellite imagery from space, says that between August 2025 and March 2026 some 1,460 square kilometres of forest were cleared in the Brazilian Amazon, 36 percent less than in the same period a year earlier and the lowest recorded figure for that window since 2014. The data come from two separate INPE systems, DETER for real-time alerts and PRODES for the annual official record, which are cross-checked.
The downward trend is visible over a longer timeframe too. According to INPE’s twelve-month figures, total loss stands at 3,770 square kilometres, also the lowest level since 2014. An independent measurement by the Brazilian NGO Imazon through its SAD system records a somewhat lower figure, around 228 square kilometres for 2025, because Imazon uses a different methodological threshold for detecting forest loss. The difference between the two datasets is expected, and both point in the same downward direction.
Brazil’s environment minister, Marina Silva, said that 70 of the 81 municipalities with the highest deforestation rates had agreed to step up enforcement on their territory. If current policies continue, Silva added, “it is possible to reach the lowest annual deforestation rate ever recorded in the Amazon”. The statement was given with caveats, since historically a significant share of deforestation in Brazil happens in the second half of the calendar year, during the dry months between July and October, when landowners most easily clear forest by burning.
What these data do NOT confirm
Before drawing wider conclusions, a number of caveats deserve emphasis. First, the figures relate solely to the Amazon biome, while in the Cerrado biome, Brazil’s natural savannah, deforestation in the same period stands at around 1,905 square kilometres. The Cerrado is politically less visible than the Amazon in Brazil, but in terms of biodiversity and water reserves it is just as important. Second, a fall in deforestation does not automatically translate into a fall in carbon-dioxide emissions from forest clearance, because a significant share of emissions come through with a lag of several years, as cleared timber slowly decays and releases stored carbon back into the atmosphere.
Third, the number of fires in the Amazon in 2025 was significantly higher than the year before, the consequence of drought and a larger area of cleared and abandoned land now exposed to burning. That means lower deforestation in the sense of fewer trees felled can coincide with greater ecological damage in the sense of burning, particularly in the frontier areas of the states of Pará and Mato Grosso. According to INPE, the number of active fires in the Amazon in October 2025 was higher than in the same month of 2024.
The next important date is the publication of the official PRODES estimate for the year ending on 31 July 2026. That figure will be key, because it is the one against which Brazil’s international commitment under the Paris Agreement is measured. Brazil renewed its target in 2023 to eliminate illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030, which at the present rate would require a further fall of 60 to 70 percent on current figures. Before the end of the year, the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to present an updated national contribution for the COP31 summit in Antalya, on 9-20 November.
Scientifically, the Amazon rainforest is a key carbon sink in the tropics. According to a study by the University of São Paulo and INPE, published in 2024 in Nature, the south-eastern parts of the Amazon have already passed the threshold at which they emit more carbon dioxide than they absorb from the atmosphere, while the western parts still operate as a sink. The change in the rainfall regime, partly a consequence of deforestation, is reinforcing this process, because less forest means less evapotranspiration and less rainfall in the region, which further weakens the ability of the remaining forest to absorb carbon. A short-run fall in deforestation can slow this trend, but it is not enough to reverse it without systemic land-use policy and the restoration of already cleared areas.
