NOAA Confirms El Nino, Hot Year Forecast Ahead
The U.S. agency NOAA issued an official El Nino advisory on June 11, estimating the event could grow into one of the strongest since records began in 1950.
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an official El Nino advisory on June 11.
- It estimates about a 63 percent chance of a very strong El Nino from November to January.
- Since 1950, only seven very strong events of this kind have been recorded.
- Scientists warn the event could tip the planet into another record-hot year.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, better known by its acronym NOAA, officially declared the onset of El Nino in the tropical Pacific on June 11, 2026, and issued an advisory. The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the agency, estimates that over the Northern Hemisphere winter the event could grow into a very strong one, which would place it among the most powerful since systematic measurements began in 1950.
El Nino is a climate pattern that emerges when the surface of the eastern and central Pacific warms above its usual values. That shift redirects flows of air and moisture around the globe, so its effects are felt far from where it begins. NOAA says sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific reached record June values in recent weeks, one of the signals that prompted the advisory.
The agency puts the odds at roughly 63 percent that the event reaches the very strong category between November and January. That is nearly double the estimate from May, showing how much the picture shifted in a single month. It is worth keeping in mind that this is a probability rather than a certainty, and that forecasts of this kind carry significant uncertainty that narrows as the event approaches its peak.
What does El Nino mean for the world?
According to NOAA, the expected global effects of a very strong El Nino include intensified droughts in some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding in others, heat waves, and disruption of the monsoons on which agriculture across much of Asia depends. The distribution of these consequences is uneven, so some areas receive a surplus of rain while others enter a period of scarcity.
Since 1950, only seven events have been classified by specialists as very strong. By the current estimate, this one could rank alongside those of 1997 and 2015, which remain reference points for powerful El Nino cycles. Mecot Lero of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center described the situation by saying that El Nino is nudging future climate prospects in particular directions.
Is another record-hot year coming?
Scientists warn that a strong El Nino, added on top of already elevated temperatures, could tip the planet into another record-hot year. El Nino itself temporarily raises the global average temperature, so its effect adds to the long-term warming trend. It is worth separating the two. El Nino is a cyclical natural phenomenon that comes and goes, while the long-term trend is a distinct question.
This estimate, however grounded it is in record Pacific temperature readings, remains a forecast. It speaks to probabilities rather than a guaranteed outcome, and the coming weeks will show whether the event truly develops as the models now suggest. What do you think, how much could an ordinary resident of Serbia even feel the consequences of an event like this on the other side of the world?
