Pristina's Math Bypasses Serbian List's Nine Seats

Milovan Drecun, chairman of the Defense and Internal Affairs Committee in Serbia’s National Assembly, says the interruption of the constitutive session of Pristina’s assembly shows that Albin Kurti is looking for a deal with the opposition to secure votes for electing the president of the provisional institutions. He made the assessment in an interview for RTS, on the day the deadline for constituting that parliament expires.

The session was suspended at Kurti’s request so he could keep talking with opposition parties. Drecun reads the pause as an attempt to first assemble a majority that would allow the parliament to be constituted and a president and deputy president elected, with a government to follow only after that. For the Serbian List, which holds nine mandates in the Pristina assembly, he does not expect the outcome of those talks to change much.

“This time it seems that Albin Kurti and his Self-Determination are ready to reach a deal with an opposition party. He at least officially says new elections are unnecessary, since it’s clear nothing would be resolved by them, and it looks as if he’s ready to accept a degree of power-sharing, which the opposition has been insisting on. As far as I can see, serious talks are underway between Self-Determination and the Democratic League of Kosovo on some kind of agreement for a possible coalition government in Pristina, after which they would move to electing the so-called president,” Drecun said.

The opposition in Pristina has been seeking a power-sharing arrangement for months. Kurti had refused it until now, so the talks with the Democratic League of Kosovo are the first sign that he is willing to give up part of his positions rather than risk a repeat election.

The Math That Leaves the Serbian Mandates Aside

Self-Determination holds 53 mandates and needs eight more votes to reach a majority of 61. The Serbian List has nine. Simple arithmetic says those nine votes alone would carry Kurti past the threshold, without a single Albanian opposition party and without giving up any ministerial posts.

That combination is not mentioned in Pristina even as a theoretical possibility. The political treatment of the MPs elected by Serb votes is described more precisely there than in any statement: it is easier to negotiate with a rival demanding half of power than with a list demanding to be recognized.

Drecun expects the outcome of any such deal to be the same.

“What is certain in all of this is that any possible coalition of Albanian parties will mean an attempt to further marginalize the Serbian List, and with it a nullification of the electoral will of the vast majority of the Serbian people, because I have no doubt that Kurti will try to install (Nenad) Rasic, who does not represent a legal and legitimate representative of the Serbian people, as deputy speaker of the parliament,” Drecun said.

The deputy speaker’s seat reserved for the Serb community matters a great deal to Kurti, Drecun assesses, because it gives him an argument before the international community that Serbs are included in the work of the institutions and that those institutions are multiethnic.

Why Is the Dispute Over the Tenth Mandate?

The Serbian List has appealed to the Constitutional Court in Pristina against a ruling by the Supreme Court, in a dispute over the tenth parliamentary mandate reserved for the Serb community. The difference between nine and ten seats is not symbolic. It determines whether the seats set aside for Serbs are held by a single list or split between two, and that in turn decides who will sit in the deputy speaker’s seat on behalf of the Serb community.

Drecun does not expect the court’s ruling to favor the Serbian List.

“I think the Serbian List has turned to the Constitutional Court. I don’t believe that court will rule in the Serbian List’s favor, just as it hasn’t in the past, so Rasic will remain a tool for Albin Kurti to manipulate and someone who does not represent the Serbian people. How is the Serbian List supposed to fight for the interests of the Serbian people, for its survival, for its security, for the improvement of its economic and every other position, if you are trying to marginalize it completely,” Drecun said.

He stressed that the Serbian List, with its nine mandates, represents a serious political force, but that Kurti does not respect the electoral will of the Serbian people.

A Deadline That Expires Today

The interruption of the session was also criticized by Albanian opposition parties, who called it irresponsible toward an institution that is supposed to be constituted. Kurti officially maintains that new elections are not needed, since they would resolve nothing, a position that leaves him only one way out: a deal within the existing composition.

Drecun assesses that the only way to resolve the institutional crisis is an agreement between Self-Determination and the Democratic League of Kosovo, and that today will show whether it comes about, since the deadline for forming the parliament expires.

What does not appear as a variable in that math are the Serbian votes. Whether a deal is reached before the deadline or the crisis drags on, the position of the Serbian List’s nine MPs will depend on the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the tenth mandate and on who ends up with the deputy speaker’s seat. Both questions will be decided by institutions over which the Serbian List has no influence.