Democrats in Congress and Kosovo: What Experts Expect
Three American experts tell Radio Free Europe that a Congress with a Democratic majority would more often question Washington's policy toward Serbia and Kosovo, but without big initiatives.
A US Congress in which Democrats hold the majority in both chambers could, starting in January, press the administration of Donald Trump more often to explain how Washington treats Serbia and Kosovo. That is the assessment three American experts gave to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), among them Robin Brooks, a former director for Central Europe and the Balkans on the US National Security Council.
We have already reported that Democrats won the House of Representatives. The new question is what that balance of power means in practice for Pristina and Belgrade. The experts who spoke to RFE/RL agree on one point: there will be more attention, but they do not expect any major diplomatic initiative soon.
What Will the New Congress Focus On?
According to Brooks, Kosovo remains an important ally of Washington, but it is not a daily concern for most members of Congress. The new Congress, which begins work in January next year, will deal mainly with domestic issues: high prices and the cost of medicine and fuel.
Foreign policy may still come up. Brooks explains that Congress could hold the administration to account if its actions run against “American laws, values and norms.” As an example, she cites the way Washington asks other countries, Kosovo among them, to cooperate on matters such as deporting people from the US.
How Could Belgrade Feel It?
Edward Joseph, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, expects a Democrat-controlled Congress to push harder for a review of the Trump administration’s policy toward Serbia. In his view, political developments in Serbia could sharpen that attention and prompt Washington to seek a bigger role in stabilizing relations with Kosovo.
He is referring to the October 25 election, in which the Student List’s victory ended 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party.
Joseph therefore urges Kosovo’s prime minister, Albin Kurti, to change his approach to the Serb community in his country. In an interview with RFE/RL, he said:
“Kurti has a rare opportunity to take the initiative and propose a new policy that would improve relations with both Kosovo Serbs and Serbia. On the other hand, if he continues with his current approach, Kosovo will face greater pressure and criticism.”
For years, Kurti has been criticized by the US and the European Union over “unilateral moves” in northern Kosovo, taken without coordination with Western allies. They argue that those moves raised tensions and a sense of insecurity among Kosovo Serbs.
What Does Daniel Fried Say?
Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador and former senior State Department official, sees prospects for “more creative diplomacy” in the region after the change of government in Serbia and the Republicans’ loss of control of Congress. He lowered expectations right away, however. “I wouldn’t expect a big initiative in the near term,” he told RFE/RL.
Fried adds that the US and Europe could still cooperate more closely to steer Serbia toward European integration. Kosovo, he says, could try to avoid being seen only through the prism of its disputes with Serbia and strengthen its ties with Washington, but that requires initiative from Kosovo itself. His advice reads:
“Kosovo should lean even more on its founding principles: democracy, the rule of law and its (wonderful) flag, which presents Kosovo as a state for all those who live in it.”
Five EU Countries That Do Not Recognize Kosovo
Brooks believes Kosovo should not tie its foreign policy exclusively to the current American administration. Her verdict: “Trying to please the Trump administration was a mistake from the very start.” In her words, that approach drew Kosovo into initiatives that did not necessarily bring it long-term benefits, such as the Board of Peace.
She recommends a different course: “Kosovo should pursue its European future and engage with both parties in the House and in the Senate.”
One area where members of Congress could help, she says, is persuading the five European Union members that do not recognize Kosovo’s independence: Spain, Greece, Romania, Cyprus and Slovakia.
What actually changes also depends on Pristina’s own steps, both in relations with Kosovo Serbs and in building closer ties with representatives of both parties in Washington.
