G7 Summit in Evian Overshadowed by Iran and Ukraine

For Serbia, which still imports its energy at prices shaped far from Belgrade, few summits this year matter more than the one opening tomorrow in Evian. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting the meeting of the world’s seven leading economies, and, according to briefings from the Elysee, he has framed the agenda around the energy shocks caused by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the continuing war in Ukraine. Both questions feed straight into fuel and electricity prices across the region, and onto household bills in Serbia.

The summit runs from June 15 to 17 in the spa town on the French shore of Lake Geneva. Joining France at the table will be the leaders of Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, along with representatives of the European Union. Following the now familiar practice of an enlarged G7 format, Macron has also invited Brazil, India, Kenya and South Korea, signalling that the West wants to talk with the countries of the global south rather than only about them.

Why is Hormuz suddenly at the centre of attention?

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow corridor between Iran and Oman, has for years been a gauge of nerves on the oil market, and a supply disruption driven by escalation in the Middle East has pushed it back to the top of the agenda. A significant share of the world’s crude oil and liquefied gas passes through it, so any hint of a blockade immediately lifts the risk premium that the market builds into the price. In Evian, accordingly, leaders are expected to weigh possible French and British involvement in clearing mines and securing the shipping lane, a concrete military and diplomatic step rather than a mere declaration.

The second axis of the talks is diversifying supply chains away from China. After several years of trade friction, the G7 members are looking for ways to source key raw materials and components, from rare metals to semiconductors, from more than one supplier. For Serbia’s European prospects this is no abstraction: rules on the origin of raw materials and the green transition already shape the terms on which domestic industry exports to the Union’s market.

What Kyiv expects from Trump in Evian

Donald Trump is attending in person, which lends the summit a weight that earlier meetings did not always carry. A working session with Volodymyr Zelensky and the G7 leaders is planned for Tuesday, where Kyiv is pressing for continued military and financial support at a moment when debates over the pace of aid are increasingly held behind closed doors. For Ukraine, every such format is a chance to remind partners that the war is not over and that a pause in support carries a cost on the front line.

Macron has also written a technology dimension into the agenda: OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has been invited to the part of the talks on artificial intelligence, a sign that leaders no longer find it enough to discuss technology in the abstract and want the people who build it at the table. For Serbia, which is only now aligning its artificial intelligence rules with the European framework, it is worth watching how that framework is drawn at the highest level.

Diplomatic channels are working at full stretch these days, and in three days Evian will be the point where energy security, the war in eastern Europe and the contest over technology intersect. How much of the briefing becomes binding policy and how much stays in a joint communique will become clear from the first decisions, but the question remains open: can a single summit ease three crises at once?