EU leaders in Brussels: Ukraine, record budget and China shock

For a country that measures its energy stability and its European prospects against decisions taken in Brussels, this summit is no distant story. The gas price that Serbian households and industry will pay next winter is shaped in part around the European Council table, and the pace of enlargement toward the Western Balkans depends on the mood in the room where Union leaders are gathering today. The two-day summit, opened at the Council building in Brussels, turns on three intertwined themes: the war in Ukraine, China’s trade imbalance and the next long-term budget.

European Council President Antonio Costa set an agenda that, beyond Ukraine, covers the competitiveness of the European economy, migration and the fight against drug trafficking. Behind all of it stands the war with Iran and its consequences for the energy market, which have caught leaders on the threshold of a new winter. Rising oil and gas prices are listed among the main concerns, and the Union is trying to hold its unity at a moment when the transatlantic relationship is again being tested in the field.

Why is the Union refusing to enter the Middle East fight?

The clearest message from the summit’s opening concerns what the Union will not do. Leaders are declining to join the military operations of the United States and Israel in the Middle East, as well as the securing of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s oil exports passes. Behind that restraint lies a calculation: any direct involvement in a conflict with Iran would further strain the energy market and push up prices that are already weighing on European economies.

Instead of military engagement, Europe’s chancelleries are counting on diplomatic channels and multilateralism as the tools through which they can shape the outcome without dragging the Union into a war that its citizens would pay for. The geopolitical reality is that Europe wants to remain an actor, but not a party to armed conflict. For Belgrade, which has built its foreign policy for years on avoiding alignment, this pattern of restraint among the great powers is watched closely as possible room to maneuver.

A record budget and an open channel to Moscow

The hardest financial decision is still ahead. The European Commission has proposed a next seven-year budget worth around 2 trillion euros, which would be the largest framework in the Union’s history, with the debate scheduled for Friday. This is money that will shape everything in the coming period, from agricultural subsidies to funds for candidate countries, Serbia among them, which is why the item is followed so attentively from the region.

Antonio Costa also acknowledged that there had been, in his words, brief contacts with Russia at the diplomatic level, aimed at opening a channel of communication, but without talks on substance. It is a signal that the Union, despite the sanctions regime, does not want to fully close the door to Moscow while the war in Ukraine continues. Competitiveness, migration and drug trafficking round out a list of topics that show how many fronts the Union is holding at once.

Whether a record budget and restraint toward the Middle East will strengthen the Union’s position, or merely postpone decisions that will be harder tomorrow, is the question that will mark the second day of this summit too. How do you see Europe’s role in a conflict being waged so close to its borders?