Montenegro: EU accession treaty by end of September

Brussels is preparing an accelerated plan to close out Montenegro’s EU accession talks, with two concrete deadlines named publicly for the first time: a first draft of the accession treaty by the end of September, and the closure of all remaining negotiating chapters by the end of the year. For Serbia, the news is not a distant one. Sources at the top of the European Commission say hybrid influence originating from Serbia is precisely the risk that, in Brussels’ assessment, could slow down or even derail Montenegro’s European path. That is why the Commission’s response is to speed the process up, rather than pause it until the political situation in Podgorica settles.

The trigger for the acceleration was a meeting that preceded the announcement. On August 21, the permanent representatives, that is, the ambassadors, of five key EU member states held consultations in Brussels on the latest political and social developments in Montenegro. After the talks, the ambassadors informally briefed the European Commission on their conclusions regarding protection of the accession process.

An unnamed senior source at the European Commission said on the matter:

“Montenegro’s European path must be protected from hybrid influence. The latest developments have been taken very seriously.”

The same circle of interlocutors specified where that risk is coming from. As one of the sources put it:

“In recent weeks Montenegro has been facing particularly intensified hybrid influence from the region, primarily from Serbia.”

According to the Podgorica daily Pobjeda, which cites several sources at the top of the European Commission, coordination of the next steps is expected to fall to the cabinet of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, working together with Ireland, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of the EU.

What the plan actually says

Montenegro has so far opened all 33 negotiating chapters, of which 18 have been provisionally closed. The new plan calls for the remaining 15 chapters to be provisionally closed by the end of 2026, with four or five more expected to close at the next intergovernmental conference between Podgorica and Brussels. Last in line under that plan would be Chapter 23, on judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24, covering justice, freedom and security, and Chapter 27, on environment and climate change, precisely the areas that are slowest to align with European standards.

Alongside the closing of chapters, preparation of the accession treaty itself is being sped up too. The exact timeline calls for care here, since two sources disagree on the sequence of events. According to Pobjeda, ambassadors of the key member states only approved the formation of a dedicated working group on April 22, while the Council of the European Union formally established the Ad Hoc Working Group tasked with drafting the treaty only in May. A second source says the Council set up that group as early as April, but a closer check confirms the two-step version: the ambassadors’ approval in April, followed by the Council’s formal establishment of the group in May. The working group is responsible for preparing the treaty and its accompanying legal acts, which will define the terms of membership, possible transition periods, institutional questions, financial obligations and safeguard clauses.

Pobjeda’s sources stress that speeding up the process does not mean softening the criteria, but rather stronger political and technical support so Montenegro can complete its remaining obligations. Part of the plan also involves greater engagement from European partners in resolving open bilateral issues between Podgorica and Zagreb, since Brussels believes dialogue between the two countries needs to intensify so that disputed issues do not end up blocking the conclusion of the negotiating process.

What Marta Kos had already announced

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos confirmed the Montenegrin government’s request for help fighting hybrid threats even before this latest round of consultations, during a hearing before the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs on April 20. She said at the time:

“We are aware of next year’s elections, important local and parliamentary elections. We have already received a request from the Government of Montenegro to help it fight hybrid warfare.”

Kos has repeatedly voiced her belief that Montenegro could become the European Union’s next member state and that negotiations could wrap up by the end of this year or the start of next, and she has said Montenegro’s membership treaty should be the first accession treaty of a new generation, carrying stronger safeguards against backsliding on rule of law and democracy. “We have achieved more than in the previous 15 years combined, and we’re continuing that work this year,” she said on that occasion, describing enlargement as one of Europe’s most important geopolitical questions today.

The region is watching the calendar

Montenegro’s accelerated path comes as Brussels is also closely watching the broader context of enlargement in the Balkans. We reported on Podgorica’s ambitions when President Jakov Milatovic met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Bratislava, where Fico backed the goal of the European Union reaching 28 members by 2028, counting Montenegro among the candidates closest to that goal. That is now compounded by a referendum in Iceland, scheduled for August 29, where citizens are not voting directly on membership but on whether Iceland should resume its EU accession talks. A “yes” result, according to close observers, could strengthen enlargement policy within the Union and reduce resistance among some member states to admitting new countries, which would indirectly work in Podgorica’s favor.

For Belgrade, the message from Brussels cuts two ways. On one hand, hybrid influence from Serbia is being named this openly, for the first time, as a risk to another country’s accession process, a diplomatic signal that is hard to ignore. On the other hand, the pace at which Montenegro is advancing, with a draft treaty due by the end of September, sets a new benchmark for the whole region at a time when Belgrade still has not opened its own Chapter 3, on the internal market. The next intergovernmental conference, at which a decision on closing four or five chapters is expected, does not yet have an official date.