Fuel Crisis Grips Russia as Over 50 Regions Run Short

For Serbia, which still sources most of its crude and refined products through Russian companies and regional flows, the image of dry pumps across more than 50 Russian regions is not an abstract geopolitical reality but a reminder of how fragile Europe’s energy arithmetic has become. This June, Moscow is confronting fuel shortages of a scale its citizens have not seen in years, and the cause is the systematic targeting of refineries and oil ports from the air.

According to available figures, Russian refining capacity has dropped by 20 to 30 percent, the result of a combination of Ukrainian drone strikes on processing plants and a sanctions regime that complicates repairs and the supply of spare parts. When 20 to 30 percent less crude is refined, less petrol and diesel reaches the domestic market, and that is precisely what drivers across dozens of regions are now feeling, from the European part of the country to remote areas in the east.

Why has the shortage hit oil infrastructure in particular?

The answer lies in the changed logic of the war. Over the past year, Ukrainian forces have shifted the centre of gravity from the front line to the depth of Russian territory, with refining capacity and the logistics that deliver fuel to both the army and civilians as the target. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that on the night of June 21, maritime logistics, the oil industry and Russian air-defence systems were struck on both sides of the Crimean Bridge, making clear that Kyiv now treats oil infrastructure as a strategic objective.

The scale of the air war remains high. Ukrainian air defences shot down 96 drones in the most recent night, while Russia launched one missile and 88 drones on the night of June 21 to 22. At the same time, the grinding ground war continues, with 213 clashes recorded over the past 24 hours, most around Pokrovsk, one of the most stubborn hotspots in the east.

For the Russian leadership, the problem is not only military but domestic. Fuel has always been a symbol of energy self-sufficiency in Russia, so queues at petrol stations and limited sales carry a message that is hard to control through state television. The Kremlin now faces a question it long avoided, namely how long the refining system can hold with a capacity shortfall of almost one third.

What does the shortage mean for Europe and the region?

The consequences do not stop at Russia’s borders. Every drop in Russian refining and exports of refined products shifts the balance on the European market, where prices are set by global supply rather than by proximity to the source. For countries such as Serbia, which balance between a European perspective and existing energy ties with Moscow, this is added pressure on already sensitive supply chains.

Brussels is watching every fresh strike on the Russian oil industry closely, because each one simultaneously weakens the financing of the war and threatens to disrupt a market the Union itself relies on. Diplomatic channels are now balancing two goals that are difficult to reconcile, cutting Moscow’s oil revenue while avoiding a new price spike that would hit European consumers. In that calculation, the small countries of the region have the least room to manoeuvre, exposed at once to market risk and geopolitical pressure.

If Ukrainian strikes on refineries continue at the same pace through the summer, the question is no longer whether the shortage will reach the European market, but how quickly it will spill over to the pumps in the region. In your view, how much of Serbia’s energy future is truly in our own hands, and how much depends on what happens on a front line a thousand kilometres away?