Hormuz Strait: Framework Agreed, Guard Sets Conditions

Iran’s parliament said the framework of an arrangement with Oman on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been agreed, and on the same day the Revolutionary Guard said the reopening of the passage has nothing to do with the talks under way in Muscat. For Serbia, where fuel prices are set from international benchmarks, this is not a distant diplomatic episode: in peacetime roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil moves through the strait, and Brent closed Friday at around $83 a barrel, moving on every signal out of the Gulf.

Hasan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, said the framework had been agreed and that a decision was awaited from higher levels. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was more specific a day later about what was still missing: the agreement with Oman is very close, he said, but full reopening of the strait depends on whether Washington honors the commitments it made in June’s memorandum of understanding.

What the framework with Oman covers

The two sides have agreed on route coordinates, splitting traffic by direction:

• inbound ships take a northern route through Iranian territorial waters
• outbound ships take a southern route through Omani waters, coordinated with Iran
• the transitional arrangement runs for 60 days, with an option to extend

The talks also cover mine clearance, passage for military vessels and an agreed fee system for ships using the strait. That last point marks a change from the earlier version of the framework reported previously, in the piece about two routes and sixty days with no fees. The fee now on the table means Tehran would draw revenue from the corridor, not just control over it.

Why does the Revolutionary Guard separate the strait from the talks?

General Hossein Mohebi, spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, argues that reopening the strait runs on its own mechanism and has nothing to do with the Iran-Oman talks. In his reading, the passage is not a trade corridor but leverage rooted in the country’s geography, to be used on the logic of defense and sovereignty, not the logic of markets.

Whenever the American side accepts the conditions of the Islamic Republic of Iran and abandons its interventionist approach, the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be secured.

Mohebi also called on Washington to stay out of the talks with Oman, which he said are nearly done. The message was aimed at two addresses at once, the American administration and his own government, whose diplomatic channel struck the very framework the Guard is now publicly playing down. The split at the top of Iran’s leadership has, for the first time, taken an official form: the two institutions of the same state disagree not on timing but on who actually gets to decide.

Markets reacted before any signature

The reaction arrived faster than any agreement. Iran’s rial strengthened to 1.85 million to the dollar on Saturday, after hitting a record low of 1.94 million the previous week, and the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange rose by around 112,000 points, a gain of just over two percent.

That is a move built on an announcement, not a signed document. If approval from higher levels fails to come, or if the Guard attaches new conditions, the rial can just as easily slide back to where it started, and energy markets that welcomed the prospect of a deal will price Gulf risk in again.

The June memorandum as the sticking point

President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a televised interview that he would defend the memorandum signed with the United States in June, and again dismissed speculation that he plans to step down. Hardliners accuse him of using the threat of resignation to pressure opponents of the diplomatic track, which makes his defense of the memorandum a defense of his own position as well.

Washington’s message offered no promise of a quick end. Vice President JD Vance told reporters:

I remind people that we are genuinely in the middle of the game. This is not over.

Traffic through the strait has been disrupted since February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel struck Iran. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry has said a joint statement with Oman will follow once an agreement is reached, without naming a date. Until then, the math stays the same for anyone buying fuel far from the Gulf: the price at the pump in Serbia moves with every sentence out of Tehran, no matter which official at the top is speaking it.