Dollar at 101.2 dinars: pressure on importers from the US and China

The official mid-rate of the dinar against the US dollar, set by the National Bank of Serbia and effective from 8 a.m. on 26 May 2026, stands at 101.2317 dinars to one dollar. The range during May ran from 101.1982 (21 May) to 103.0824 (4 May), an amplitude of 1.86 per cent, while over the same month the swing against the euro was just 0.04 per cent. On the interbank FX market the spread for dollar transactions above 100,000 dollars runs at 0.15 to 0.22 per cent one-way.

The volatility reflects swings in the international EUR/USD parity, which in May moved between 1.156 and 1.178 dollars to one euro. The NBS holds the EUR/RSD rate steady under its managed-float regime, which means that any volatility on the euro-dollar pair feeds directly into the USD/RSD rate. Serbia’s foreign currency reserves stood at 28.3 billion euros at the end of 2025, with the dollar share that governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic, in a March presentation, put at “below 20 per cent of the portfolio”.

Who bears the cost of volatility

The largest direct hit lands on importers from the United States and China, where the bulk of payments is made in dollars. According to figures from the Serbian Chamber of Commerce for the first quarter of 2026, total imports of goods from the US came in at 374 million dollars, while imports from the People’s Republic of China were 1.82 billion dollars. A monthly amplitude of 1.86 per cent in this category means direct price-risk exposure of around 7 million euros for firms without forward hedging.

Retailers importing consumer electronics and tech goods from China, particularly IT Trade, Tehnomanija, WinWin and Gigatron, held their retail prices unchanged in May, according to a Belgrade Chamber of Commerce statement on 22 May, meaning they absorbed the full FX swing into their own margins. Branislav Gulan, president of the Association of Technical Retailers, told the Novi Sad daily Vremja that “margins on mid-range imported laptops and mobile phones run at 4 to 7 per cent, so the room to absorb FX risk at current volatility is almost gone”.

Forward hedging as an answer

Banca Intesa, AIK Banka, Komercijalna and Banka Postanska Stedionica offer forward dollar purchase contracts with tenors of 30 to 180 days, at the following rates per Banca Intesa’s market list published on 23 May: 30 days at 101.79, 90 days at 102.15, 180 days at 102.68 dinars to one dollar. The spread between the spot rate and the 180-day forward is 1.42 per cent, reflecting expected inflation differentials and a risk premium.

The Association of Serbian Banks said in its May report that just 11 per cent of the SME sector actively uses forward instruments to hedge against dollar risk. The other 89 per cent depend on spot purchases, which, with monthly volatility close to two per cent, means material losses at the annual margin level.

How Serbia’s dollar exporters fare

The export side faces the opposite picture: Serbian companies billing in dollars, particularly in the IT sector (Vega IT, Levi9, Endava Serbia), book a boost on their dinar payroll calculation when the dollar strengthens. According to figures from the Digital Economy Association, the IT sector exported services worth 4.1 billion euros in 2025, of which 67 per cent were billed in dollars. At the current rate, the sector’s monthly dinar takings come to around 70 billion dinars, with an FX gain of around 1.3 billion dinars over the past 30 days from the dollar’s strength against the euro.

The next reference points

The central bank calendar for the second quarter pencils in the European Central Bank Governing Council meeting on 5 June and the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 11 June, the two events that will directly set the EUR/USD parity and pass through to the USD/RSD rate. The domestic NBS Executive Board meeting on the policy rate is set for 12 June. The policy rate has been 5.75 per cent since February.