Hormuz oil wont flow at once: mines and waiting
A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is in place, but analysts estimate months before oil fully flows: around 500 ships are trapped and mine clearance could take up to six months.
- Around 500 commercial vessels remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf, according to data firm Kpler.
- Clearing the strait of mines is estimated at roughly six months, while evacuating stranded ships could take two to three months.
- Capital Economics expects energy flows to return to 80 percent of pre-war levels by September.
- Before the war Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's crude oil, and the disruption feeds directly into fuel prices in Serbia.
For Serbia, a country that pays world prices for fuel and imports most of its oil, news that a deal has been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sounds like relief. But the geopolitical reality moves slower than the diplomatic statement. Even though the parties have confirmed their willingness to bring the world’s most important oil passage back into service, analysts warn that oil will not flow overnight. Before the first tankers can pass safely, mines have to be removed, trapped ships evacuated, and captains convinced that the waters are secure again.
The estimates coming from specialist maritime tracking firms paint a picture of a long recovery. According to Kpler, around 500 commercial vessels remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to leave until the strait is declared safe. The mine clearance operation itself, by some estimates, could take up to six months, while evacuating the backlog of vessels could take two to three months. That means the effects of the deal will be felt over quarters, not days.
Why isnt the oil price reacting faster?
The price of oil fell the moment the deal was announced, an expected market reaction to reduced risk. But a falling price is not the same as the physical flow of barrels. Tanker captains remain cautious and will not enter the zone until they judge the waters are genuinely safe, because insurers and cargo owners are unwilling to risk a ship worth hundreds of millions of dollars over a single remaining mine. Round trips for tankers heading to Japan, one of the key Asian buyers, take 45 to 50 days, so even at normal flow the logistics chain rebuilds gradually.
Capital Economics estimates that energy flows could return to around 80 percent of pre-war levels by September. That figure matters because it shows the full recovery is not a matter of a single month but of an entire summer. Before the war, Hormuz carried a fifth of the world’s crude oil, making it a chokepoint through which a disproportionate share of the global energy balance passes. Any disruption there spills over into markets from Asia to Europe, and Serbia, which buys fuel at benchmark world prices, feels that wave at the pump.
What does the deal mean for Europes supply outlook?
For Europe, which has diversified its oil and gas imports in recent years, the reopening of Hormuz is not a question of survival, but it is a question of cost. Less oil on the market means higher costs for refineries, and that cost eventually reaches consumers. European offices tracking energy security weigh every signal from the Gulf carefully, because price stability feeds directly into inflation and into governments’ ability to keep living costs under control.
The Serbian perspective is especially sensitive here. Domestic refining capacity and import logistics are dictated by world prices, not local decisions. While diplomacy celebrates the deal, ships are still waiting, mines still lie in shallow waters, and the market counts weeks and months, not hours. The real question is no longer whether Hormuz will reopen, because that is now confirmed, but how long Serbia will keep paying the bill for the delay in full flow.
How willing are you to accept that geopolitics from the other side of the world dictates the fuel price you pay at your local pump?
