Iran and Oman Agree on Hormuz Corridor, Oil Prices Fall

Iran and Oman announced a joint temporary framework on Tuesday for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed before it was closed. The news matters for Serbia too, even though it concerns the other side of the world: the oil market is global, so the drop in the price of a barrel that followed the announcement filters through, at least indirectly, to domestic fuel prices, since importers and refineries track the movement of Brent and American crude regardless of where the physical product is bought. We have previously reported on Tehran’s threats to fully block oil exports from the Gulf and on the announcement of new American sanctions. Tuesday’s agreement is the first time a concrete framework for reopening the strait has existed, not just an announcement.

What the temporary framework covers

According to a joint statement carried by the Oman News Agency, the talks were led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. The framework provides for a joint temporary maritime corridor through the strait and a joint demining project, aimed at restoring safe navigation. Technical talks between the two sides, the statement says, will continue on a permanent corridor, the future administration of the strait, an information-sharing mechanism, traffic management, and the provision of maritime and security services.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said, according to the Tasnim news agency, that a permanent route should be negotiated within 30 to 60 days. The same official, however, said on Tuesday that the strait remains militarily closed despite the announced framework, which shows this is about opening diplomatic space for negotiations, not an immediate change on the ground. Both sides also stressed in the statement the importance of maintaining joint talks with regional countries bordering the Persian Gulf, and Albusaidi wrote on social media that talks with regional partners would “be conducted in support of peace and cooperation, stability and freedom of navigation.”

Why does Trump’s demining claim raise doubts?

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US Navy had cleared all mines from the strait’s main shipping lane, but offered no evidence for the claim. European officials had previously expressed doubt over similar statements from Trump, since demining is a long and complex task that is not completed in a matter of days. Two American officials with direct knowledge of the matter nonetheless confirmed Trump’s statement to Axios.

Alongside the demining announcement, Trump issued a warning as well. “Iran has been informed that any ship or boat that lays new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed,” he said in a post carried by Axios.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to the same source, told several foreign counterparts that the United States does not currently plan new strikes on Iran, with the caveat that retaliation is not ruled out should Iran strike first. Rubio said the focus is now on other forms of pressure, primarily economic sanctions.

How oil markets reacted

Oil prices fell around two and a half percent on news of the Iran-Oman framework, hitting their lowest level since mid-August. According to Reuters data carried by Pajhwok, Brent crude dropped $2.30, or 2.6 percent, to $86.28 a barrel at 4:47 GMT, the lowest since August 13. American crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell $2.08, or 2.53 percent, to $80.29 a barrel, the lowest since August 10. Both benchmark crudes had already fallen more than three percent on Tuesday.

Rigzone, however, cited different figures in its own market roundup the same day: WTI at $81.54, down one percent, and Brent at $87.46, down 1.26 percent. The discrepancy likely stems from different points in the trading day when the figures were taken, but the sources do not agree on the exact price level, so both figures are worth noting.

“The market is still reacting to developments around navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” Mitsuru Muraishi, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, told Reuters.

Ann Jacobs, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said the agreement was a step in the right direction, but that the key question remains how Washington will respond. “The wild card is Trump, and whether his administration will support this framework,” Jacobs said.

The broader diplomatic picture

The strait has been largely closed since March, when Iran blocked it following American and Israeli strikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A temporary 60-day peace agreement was signed in June, but that deadline lapsed in mid-August without a lasting resolution, making Tuesday’s framework the first concrete attempt to resume negotiations after the stalemate.

Washington expanded sanctions on Iran on Monday and warned trading partners of possible restrictions, though enforcement was not immediate. At the same time, the United States has begun returning some diplomatic staff to Middle East missions that had previously been scaled back because of tensions with Tehran, a sign that Washington now rates the risk of imminent escalation lower than it did a few months ago.

China responded by rejecting pressure on Iran. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian told a regular press briefing that Beijing firmly opposes illegal unilateral sanctions against Iran. “We will take all necessary measures to protect our rights,” Lin said.

Albusaidi’s visit to Tehran came a day after a visit from Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, who, according to Iranian officials, came to open space for negotiations and convey Iran’s terms to the American side. Oman and Pakistan have served as the main mediators between Washington and Tehran throughout the dispute.

The next round of talks between Iran and Oman on a permanent route through Hormuz has been set for sometime within 30 to 60 days, with no precise date given. Until then, the strait, according to Iranian officials, formally remains militarily closed despite the announced framework, and whether Washington will accept the agreement as a basis for resuming its own negotiations with Tehran is the question now dividing opinion in both Washington and Muscat.