Fragile Gulf Truce: Israel Ready to Enter the War
After two days of US-Iran strikes, an uneasy calm holds across the Middle East as Israel waits for Trump's green light and Tehran openly threatens reprisal.
- After two days of deadly US-Iran strikes across the Middle East, an uneasy calm has settled in as mediators try to bring diplomacy back to the table.
- Washington declared the truce dead on July 8 after Tehran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military then hit some 90 targets across Iran.
- Israeli officials say the country is ready to join the strikes and is waiting for Trump's approval, which would reignite the conflict halted back in April.
- Behind the scenes, Qatar and Pakistan are working to return both sides to talks, with the opening of Hormuz still at the heart of the dispute.
For Serbia, whose oil industry and fuel prices hinge on stability in the Persian Gulf, every new strike in that corridor is not distant news but a question of energy security heading into autumn. After two days of deadly US-Iran strikes across the Middle East, a lull has taken hold that no one calls peace, because the diplomatic channel is not yet shut, but neither is it open enough to speak of a ceasefire.
The turning point came on July 8, when US President Donald Trump declared the previously agreed truce with Iran dead after Tehran kept targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints. In response, the US military struck around 90 targets across Iran, from military installations to infrastructure, pushing the region back into open conflict that April’s talks had only temporarily frozen.
Why is Israel waiting for Trump’s green light?
Israeli officials are now saying openly that their country is ready to join the American strikes on Iran and is waiting solely for Trump’s consent. It is a decision that would change the nature of the conflict: while the strikes so far have been primarily an American operation with Israeli support in the background, a direct Israeli entry would return the region to the full-scale war halted in April. Tel Aviv calculates that a joint campaign would break Iran’s ability to close Hormuz, but any such move carries the risk of a wider regional response.
Tehran is not staying silent. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the key negotiators, warned that Israel will not be spared if the United States continues to strike Iranian infrastructure. His message is a clear signal that Iran sees Israel as the most vulnerable target for reprisal, turning the negotiations into a contest of threats. Trump, for his part, warned at the NATO summit in Ankara that Washington could strike civilian infrastructure in Iran, including power plants and desalination facilities, which would hit millions of residents.
Who can still stop the war
While the public messaging sharpens, a quieter game is unfolding behind the scenes. Qatar and Pakistan, two countries with open channels to both Tehran and Washington, are working to bring both sides back to the table before the lull turns into a new offensive. Qatari mediators are reportedly already traveling to the Iranian capital, while Pakistani diplomacy is drawing on its historic closeness with the Iranian leadership.
The core of the dispute is not abstract. It all comes down to paragraph five of the earlier agreement, which governs the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to free navigation. Iran seeks to use control of that passage to impose rules and collect fees from passing ships, while Washington insists the strait must remain an international corridor free of Iranian conditions. Until that single point is resolved, any calm will remain only a pause between two waves of strikes.
For European capitals, Brussels included, this is a test of how far the transatlantic bond can channel American force toward diplomacy rather than fresh escalation. Will the mediators from Doha and Islamabad manage to stop the war before Israel gets the green light it is waiting for?
