Trump cools Iran deal: 'Talks going well, but big or nothing'

US President Donald Trump on Monday morning, in a Truth Social post, significantly walked back the announcements he had made on Saturday 24 May. At the White House, he had said a memorandum of understanding with Iran was “largely agreed” and would be announced “soon”.

In the new Monday post, which by Tuesday had become the administration’s main reference statement, Trump writes that “talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran are going nicely”. Then he adds:

It will be a big deal for everyone or none at all, back to the battlefield, with bombers bigger and stronger than ever.

For Serbia, which keeps active economic and diplomatic ties with Iran and hosted a trade delegation from Tehran in 2025, the shift in rhetoric has concrete economic effects. Brent crude on the London exchange rose 1.8 percent on Monday to 78.40 dollars a barrel. For Belgrade that means added pressure on the refining sector at a moment when NIS is still negotiating with OFAC over an extension of its sanctions waiver. The deadline for submitting documents has been pushed back fourteen days, to 6 June.

The Iranian authorities, through the semi-official Fars agency, on Sunday denied significant parts of the concessions reported earlier:

Iran has taken no obligations in this agreement regarding the handover of nuclear stockpiles, the removal of equipment, the closure of facilities, or any pledge not to build a nuclear bomb.

The denial effectively undoes what had been presented on Friday and Saturday as a US diplomatic success, particularly the part on Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, which Trump had insisted be “dismantled” as a condition of any deal.

Three open flashpoints

Three issues are keeping the negotiating frame open:

• The Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly twenty million barrels of oil daily and which Iran periodically restricted in 2025 in response to sanctions; the proposed framework would mean “a gradual reopening of maritime trade routes”, but with no clear timeline
• Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which Washington wants handed to international mediators and Tehran refuses to release
• The release of 12 billion dollars in Iranian assets frozen in Korean, Japanese and European banks, a precondition Tehran sets and Washington conditions on security guarantees for its Gulf allies

Brussels, through High Representative Kaja Kallas, signalled on Monday the EU’s readiness to be a co-signatory of the memorandum as a technical guarantor. That would be unprecedented in modern diplomacy. Berlin backs this position because the German defence industry holds contracts worth 4.2 billion euros with Saudi Arabia and the UAE that depend on Gulf stability. Paris, where Sebastien Lecornu’s government is in crisis after pushing through the 2026 budget without a vote, is more reserved.

Washington and Tehran stay in the corridor

The negotiating team in Washington is led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who on Wednesday evening in Washington hosted Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani. The meeting lasted three hours, after which Witkoff issued a brief statement through the State Department saying that “dialogue remains constructive”. Iravani’s side, coordinating with the Foreign Ministry in Tehran, told IRNA on Tuesday that “the room for an agreement exists, but the American side must adjust its expectations”.

Belgrade is continuing the diplomatic communication started in May through its embassies in Washington and Tehran, with the primary aim of keeping foreign policy consistent ahead of the EU-Western Balkans summit in Tivat on 5 June. President Vucic and Foreign Minister Marko Djuric are expected to discuss the significance of the Iran file for regional energy security with von der Leyen and Kallas at the summit.

What strategy do you expect from the White House over the next seven days, a new round of talks with a concrete date or a return to military rhetoric?