Hurricane Isaias nears Alabama and Florida, Gulf oil halted
The season's first Atlantic hurricane formed more than four months after it began. Governors have declared emergencies, and a quarter of Gulf oil production has stopped.
Hurricane Isaias became the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season late on Wednesday, October 7. The US National Hurricane Center confirmed Category 1 strength, with sustained winds of about 120 kilometers per hour. The center of the storm was about 745 kilometers south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at 15 kilometers per hour. Landfall is expected late Friday, October 9, or early Saturday, October 10, somewhere between the Mississippi coast and the western Florida Panhandle, most likely near the Alabama-Florida line.
Why did the first hurricane arrive only in October?
Isaias is the ninth named storm of the year and formed more than four months after the Atlantic season began. According to the National Weather Service, the record for the latest first hurricane belongs to 1905, when one formed on October 8. NBC News reports that Isaias nearly tied that record, while ABC News writes that it is the latest first hurricane in recorded history, so the sources disagree on this point.
The season was unusually quiet because of a strong El Nino, which suppresses storm formation over the Atlantic, while Pacific activity is above average. Tropical Storm Simon formed on Wednesday off the coast of Mexico. Before Isaias, three storms that never reached hurricane strength, Arthur, Bertha and Edouard, brought heavy rain to the Gulf states.
Where is the storm expected to hit?
A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay and Gulf county line in Florida. A storm surge warning covers the stretch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River in Florida. The latest forecast nudges the track slightly east, which puts landfall closer to Pensacola.
The forecast calls for Isaias to strengthen to Category 2 by Thursday evening, with winds of up to 177 kilometers per hour, over the central Gulf. It would then weaken slightly before landfall because of dry air and wind shear, and come ashore as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. No reliable model, according to a forecast published by WGCU, predicts a full-strength strike. By Saturday evening the storm should be absorbed by a low-pressure trough over the Tennessee Valley.
The worst impacts are expected east of the storm’s center:
- storm surge of 1.5 to 2.1 meters along the Alabama coast and the western Panhandle
- rainfall mostly between 75 and 180 millimeters, locally up to 250 millimeters
- wind gusts of 130 to 160 kilometers per hour in the hurricane warning zone, according to ABC News
- tornadoes in rain bands from Alabama east through the Panhandle
Evacuations, emergency declarations and schools
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency for 40 counties on Wednesday. “While I hope for minimal impacts, we must take the preparations seriously,” Ivey wrote on X. In a statement she added: “This will allow us to take all necessary steps before landfall.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Tuesday evening for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. That activated the state hurricane plan, and a search and rescue team from Miami was sent to Florida.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in two Panhandle counties: along the coast of Okaloosa County from noon on Thursday, and in Gulf County for RVs at three campgrounds. Dauphin Island, Alabama, called a voluntary evacuation from Thursday evening for 350 to 400 homes, and Gulf Shores and Orange Beach urged residents of low-lying areas to leave voluntarily.
In Pensacola, utility companies have deployed crews to restore power quickly after outages, and the city is handing out sand for sandbags. Mayor D.C. Reeves told a news conference: “Understandably, there is no need to panic at this point.” He added that this is preparation.
Gulf Shores resident Marani Adams was getting her family ready to ride out the storm at home, about 800 meters from the shore, along with a flock of chickens. “We have to get crates to bring them into the house so the wind doesn’t carry them off,” she told the Associated Press.
The National Shrimp Festival in Gulf Shores, which drew about 325,000 visitors last year, has been canceled. Schools are closed in at least three states, and the Florida State University campus in Panama City is closed on Thursday and Friday.
How much oil has stopped?
By Wednesday, about 25 percent of Gulf oil production, or roughly 511,000 barrels a day, had been temporarily shut in, and eight of 371 staffed platforms had been evacuated. The Gulf accounts for almost 15 percent of annual US crude oil production.
Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research at S&P Global Energy, told the Associated Press in a written response: “I would describe the risk to the oil market as moderate but rising.” Earlier Gulf storms caused bigger disruptions than this one, he said, and the greater concern is whether Isaias strikes as a strong storm near refineries.
The coast Isaias is heading for is known for major storms. Hurricane Camille killed more than 250 people near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969, Katrina took almost 1,400 lives in 2005, and Michael flattened homes and buildings near Panama City in 2018.
