Hurricane Isaias halts 68.76% of Gulf of Mexico oil output
The US Marine Minerals Administration reported on Saturday that 68.76% of oil and 57.44% of gas output has stopped, with 113 platforms evacuated. On Thursday, 62.89% of oil was shut in.
The share of oil production shut in across the US Gulf of Mexico has climbed from about 25% to 68.76% in three days, according to Saturday’s update from the American Marine Minerals Administration. Hurricane Isaias has also stopped 57.44% of natural gas production.
Staff have been evacuated from 113 of the 371 staffed production platforms, or 30.46%. Crews have also been pulled from eight of the 11 drilling rigs that lack dynamic positioning systems, which is 72.73% of that type of equipment currently operating in the Gulf.
How did the shutdown grow from Wednesday to Saturday?
We previously reported on the hurricane heading toward Alabama and Florida, when a quarter of production had stopped. Since then, the figures have developed like this:
- Wednesday, October 7: about 25% of oil and about 16% of gas
- Thursday, October 8: 62.89% of oil and 57.35% of gas
- Saturday, October 10: 68.76% of oil and 57.44% of gas
Between Thursday and Saturday, oil added 5.87 percentage points and gas almost nothing. The big jump came in a single day, between Wednesday and Thursday. The number of evacuated platforms has meanwhile fallen: on Thursday, staff had been pulled from 121 platforms, which was then about 33% of 371. The sources we reviewed do not explain the difference.
How many barrels of oil and cubic feet of gas is that?
As far as the available sources show, the Administration’s Saturday report gives only percentages. Two sources give absolute figures for Thursday, and they differ in the decimals: gCaptain reports 1.28 million barrels of oil a day and about 1.13 billion cubic feet of gas, while Reuters, via Offshore Engineer magazine, reports 1.3 million barrels and 1.1 billion cubic feet.
The federal Gulf of Mexico produces about 2 million barrels of oil a day, around 15% of total US crude output, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas from the region averages about 2.1 billion cubic feet a day. Applying Saturday’s 68.76% to production of about 2 million barrels gives roughly 1.4 million barrels a day. That is our own rough calculation, not an Administration figure.
Who has stopped production?
According to Reuters, BP halted production on Thursday and evacuated everyone from the Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms. Chevron shut down production at five facilities in the Gulf and is continuing work at the remaining four, with most of its staff moved ashore. gCaptain lists four Chevron sites, so the sources disagree on one facility. Shell suspended operations at the Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox platforms.
The consultancy Earth Science Associates estimates, using a model, that about 9 million barrels of production could be lost during the storm. Tropical Storm Bertha took 7.1 million barrels in July. By the same model, the most exposed companies are BP, Chevron, ENI, Murphy and Shell.
Refineries are also in the storm’s path: according to an estimate by Energy Aspects, about 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity lies on the storm’s track, including the refinery in Pascagoula, Mississippi. The price of oil jumped 4% on Thursday, partly because of growing supply disruptions, Reuters reports. gCaptain adds that the storm arrives as global oil stocks are already under pressure from the conflict in the Middle East, where attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict tanker traffic.
Where and when is landfall expected?
Isaias is the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. According to the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 10 a.m. Central time on Thursday, it had maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour (about 137 km/h) and was about 380 miles (about 610 km) south of the mouth of the Mississippi, moving east-northeast at 10 miles per hour (about 16 km/h). Landfall was forecast for late Friday or early Saturday, near the point where Mississippi, Alabama and Florida meet. gCaptain later reported that on Friday morning Isaias strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 120 miles per hour (about 193 km/h).
The National Hurricane Center, part of the National Weather Service, warned in a post on X: “A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida.” That means a wave surge dangerous to life along the stretch of coast from the mouth of the Mississippi to Suwannee, Florida.
The Coast Guard said it is preparing for the aftermath and for reopening ports as soon as conditions allow, but warned that during the worst of the storm the ability to carry out rescues may be greatly reduced or absent. The Marine Minerals Administration says production shutdowns are a standard measure during hurricanes: operators close safety valves on wells before evacuating, and facilities are inspected once the storm has passed. Undamaged ones usually return to service quickly, while damaged ones may need more extensive repairs.
