Local elections: SNS slips in eight of ten municipalities

Two months on from the local elections held on 29 March in ten local government units, a more detailed analysis of the vote by journalists from N1 and the research group CRTA shows that the ruling Serbian Progressive Party has recorded a drop in vote share in eight of the ten municipalities compared with the 2022 local cycle. In some municipalities, the drop runs to as much as 20 per cent, according to an N1 dispatch from April based on official Republic Electoral Commission results.

The vote covered the City of Bor and the municipalities of Smederevska Palanka, Bajina Basta, Kula, Lucani, Arandjelovac, Kladovo, Knjazevac and Majdanpek, plus the Sevojno municipal district, while President Aleksandar Vucic that evening declared victory for the SNS-led coalition in all ten units. Turnout in some municipalities passed 70 per cent, RT Balkan reports, far above recent local cycles and a marker of heightened voter interest.

What do the municipality figures say about the autumn vote?

In Kladovo and Bajina Basta, traditional SNS strongholds, the coalition kept an absolute majority, but with a considerably smaller number of votes in absolute terms. In Arandjelovac and Smederevska Palanka, according to CRTA, opposition lists made up of candidates linked to the student bloc rose above 30 per cent, a result that exceeds any recent local contest. In Bor and Majdanpek, towns with a history of industrial protests, support for the authorities fell but the lead over the opposition remained in double digits.

Zoran Lutovac of the Democratic Party said the March cycle showed the ruling coalition “is no longer able to win free elections without the use of state resources”, citing observer-mission findings on pressure on public-sector employees. Marinika Tepic of the Party of Freedom and Justice added that consolidation of the opposition lists for the parliamentary elections could replicate and build on the March trend.

From the ruling side, Speaker of Parliament Ana Brnabic said SNS remains “by far the strongest political force in Serbia” and that the drop in some municipalities falls within the natural swings of local politics. SNS parliamentary leader Milenko Jovanov added that the public should be comparing “real results, not propaganda”, noting that the coalition partners kept majorities on every council.

From the independent observers, the Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability noted that the 29 March vote was marked by violence, pressure and unequal campaign conditions, which seriously undermined trust in the electoral process. The Helsinki Committee said in its report that the drop in SNS votes in places where incidents were recorded shows that part of the electorate is punishing the high-handed conduct of party activists.

From what we understand, at the top of SNS and the Alliance for Serbia’s Victory, preparation for the parliamentary elections is already under way, with candidate testing in the municipalities that showed the biggest shifts in March. A definitive picture of voter mood, the assessment goes, will only be available with the first agency polls after the formal calling of the parliamentary elections, announced by the president for the autumn.

On the academic side, Faculty of Political Sciences professor Despot Kovacevic told the weekly Vreme that the March results showed “the SNS local network still functions”, but that voters are increasingly punishing candidates tied to incidents and conflicts in local politics. Sociologist Smiljka Tomanovic said the next cycle could open space for independent candidates from student circles, particularly in urban areas where protest mobilisation is strongest. The Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability has scheduled a panel discussion for 12 June on preparing an observation mission for the autumn vote, which can be read as an attempt to set standards early for monitoring the electoral process.

The next reference point is the Republic Electoral Commission session set for 30 May, which will consider reports on the conduct of the local elections and proposals for aligning procedures with the changes to the electoral laws now before parliament.